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Getting a Little Extended

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Gold Trend Continued. 12/21/2019

My short positions made me money this week. We did not see the pull back to the 1460 area that I was hoping for but gold stayed within a range all week not breaking to either side of 1477 or 1485. When price is moving like this can be some of the best trading. I Do not have a position on gold at this time I think this sideways movement could break out to the upside very slightly  before we head back down to support.

The general attitude I get from most gold future traders is the same as always, “the worlds going to explode and gold is going to go to 10k”, its out of range above 1485 at this time  and am patiently waiting on the sidelines. Any break above 1485 I will be looking to put on short positions.

 

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Still I refer to my chart from last week and say that  The overall trend For gold is up. but Its looking up from 1300 not 1485. Its almost always a good time to be buying physical gold But it is my personal opinion that We will see deeper discounted prices next year.

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This post is not meant to be financial, Trading, Or investing advice of Any kind. Your capital may be at risk and I, the writer of this blog, am not responsible for any losses or gains that could be sustained trading with or against me and my positions. All statements made in this post are pure speculation.

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Gold Trend

The following is not trading or investing advice of any kind.

I do not Expect to see under 1300 dollars for gold again in my my life time…

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For now though my position is short 1234

I Do not know where the gold price will be going on Sunday night. Any losses or gains made in your  account by trading with or against me are are result of your decisions and not mine. Good luck trading.

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‘We’re going to win so much, you’re going to be so sick and tired of winning’

s&p 500 late 221

Many experts have called 2020 the time for the next recession… Im looking further to late 2021.

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Chesapeake Eating Itself

 

Natural gas on Friday  continued to sell off.  I don’t think it should go without mentioning  while all of this was happening Chesapeake Energy  stayed relatively static. But something interesting happened Right at the end of the day Chesapeake got sold and before the futures session closed natural gas was bought. ng2.pngchk

Of course there are tons of variables at play here and Chesapeake energy’s market share for natural gas is only 5.25%.  But Chesapeake Energy mentioned in its Q3 earnings call.. “Finally, we have a significant portion of our 2020 production volumes hedged with approximately 265 billion cubic feet of gas a 17 million barrels of oil hedged at $2.76 per mcf and $59.28 per barrel of oil”.

Due to the price action on Friday and these statements from Chesapeake Energy It Seems to me that their Extreme debt situation has caused them to gamble with future natural gas contracts calling them a “Tremendous lever”. While this may be true sometimes a stronger arm can do more than a big lever. Big levers break and anyone who has been in natural gas recently has seen a definite strong arm.

 

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Yep

I know it is an extremely small amount but hey 17% is 17% either way.

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Being right.

Being right always feels good. This one has yet to prove itself but my thesis was that if chk didn’t break 1.72 on the downside before resuming a bullish pattern then I would consider it a strong buy… This is exactly what happened… well close… for someone buying at my level it did… maybe someone with access to much more capital could have snagged some for as low as 1.71 or just under but that was a killer morning. Just check the chart here… tvc_607858c9158d343511fdb60ced7b6f86

 

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Make or break for Chesapeak Energy $1.72

Chesapeake Energy shot to a high of $1.99 a share today with the momentum of a 7-day rally from $1.33. There are most certainly fundamental reasons for this, like rising natural gas prices. the technical side is what has me intrigued. the opening spike and subsequent drop I see as a break in the up every day trend. However, I do not believe that this is the deciding point that will take us to new lows for Chesapeake. If you take a look at the chart I posted I’ve circled the reasons I believe this is now in a downtrend. The trend line you see drawn there indicates where I think we will be either headed to new lows with Chesapeake or back up to challenge the 2.00 level. This stock has trended down for quite a long time before this rally I would not be surprised to see it take a few more hits before we get the possibility of more upside here. I’m sure many have watched their account values fall while holding this stock so some will be getting out while they see they have a good opportunity. On the other hand, if you had only been holding this stock for the last week you could have seen a huge return causing some very bullish emotions to come into play. Come tomorrows open for Chesapeake I expect to see it fall, and I expect this downtrend to continue for a few more days. If my projections are correct and Chesapeake doesn’t break 1.72 before resuming a bullish pattern I will consider it a strong buy. tvc_ba49d36f2c6fd27016533442d15f668d

This post is not meant to be financial, trading, or investing advice of any kind.